Looking at the Bigger Picture for Your Replacement Ratio in Retirement
Thursday, April 26th, 2007It seems that retirement savings is getting more complicated. Some reports are saying we are not saving enough while other reports are saying that we are saving too much. So who do you believe? The answer is that neither of these reports has anything to do with your situation. These reports are on the macro level, looking at the country in general. To understand your situation, you need to look at your long-term financial picture. In particular, you need to see how your big ticket items, like housing, medical, savings, children, taxes, etc., will affect your saving for and your spending in retirement.
To understand how much you need to save in retirement, many people point to the income replacement ratio that you should target for retirement. The general rule of thumb is that a retiree will need to replace 70% of his income in retirement (recently this has been bumped by some advisors up to 80%). Yet, this number is based on looking at the spending habits of current retirees. It has little to do with what you may need in your retirement based on your spending habits.
Many look at the 70% to 80% and justify it by starting with 100% of income and making adjustments in spending for the typical retiree. It assumes the average retiree will save some money in taxes, will not need to save for retirement anymore and will need to spend additional money on medical care. It also assumes retirees will save some money on living accommodations in retirement. However, because some retirees rent, some retirees are paying off their mortgage and some retirees are paying for assisted living, the savings is usually not an all or nothing adjustment (just an average of the typical retiree). So for someone retirees who paid off their mortgage and have long-term care insurance, they may need to significantly less money for shelter. The key is to plan your large expenditures as you get closer to retirement to see what your target number is, for example:
|
Middle Age |
Near Retirement |
In Retirement |
|
| Retirement Savings |
10% |
20% |
0% |
| Children (or Grand-children) |
10% |
0% |
5% |
| Medical Spending |
5% |
5% |
10% |
| FICA Tax |
8% |
8% |
0% |
| State Tax |
6% |
6% |
4% |
| Mortgage |
20% |
20% |
0% |
| Vacations |
2% |
4% |
6% |
| Other |
39% |
37% |
40% |
| Total |
100% |
100% |
65% |
In this example, the worker is planning on using his current expenditures for his children and using it towards his retirement savings as they leave home. He is also planning on paying off his mortgage before retiring. Thus, instead of needing to replace 80% of his income, he may only need to replace 65%. This is significant reduction, especially if Social Security was going to replace 35% of his income, because he may only need to replace 30% of his income instead of 55% (nearly ½ of what he may have planned on). However, he should also be careful and additional money for assisted living since he is assuming nothing for his housing in retirement.
Yet, as you see, the actual replacement percentage is very dependent on the retiree’s situation. If a retiree’s mortgage has not been paid off before retirement (for example, he bought a more expensive place in Florida to retire to), the 65% needed for retirement may be closer to 85%. In addition, if the retiree had not been saving a lot of his retirement due to having a good company pension plan, the income he may need to replace in retirement could increase from 85% to 90% or 100%.
Some things to consider in figuring out your replacement ratio:
Retirement Savings – How much are you currently savings for retirement? If you do not have a company pension plan, you may be saving 15% to 20% already which will significantly reduce the amount of your income you need to replace in retirement. If you have a great company pension plan or wise investing early in your career (which decreased the need to save later in your career,) you may not have been saving that much, the closer you get to retirement. If you are spending the money instead of saving it, you will need a higher amount of your income replaced in retirement.
Taxes – If you plan to move to a state with lower or no income taxes (like Florida or Nevada), you will be able to save some money (yet compare the state’s sales taxes to see if this will be higher). In addition, if you saved more money in post-tax investments like a Roth IRA or regular investments (e.g., non-IRA/401(k) accounts), then you have already probably been taxed on most of this income, thus you will save some money on Federal taxes.
Housing – If you have paid off your mortgage before retirement, you may need less money in retirement (unless you have already used this savings for other purposes like more extravagant vacations). Do not forget, even if you do not have a mortgage in retirement, you may have costs for assisted living and/or nursing home care later in retirement that should be factored in.
Note, some would say needing less money for retirement by pay off your mortgage is an important step to do. Yet, paying off your mortgage will lower the amount you need to save for retirement but will also lower the amount that you can save for retirement (which basically cancels each other out). For example, if you had a decision whether to invest $20,000 for retirement or use the $20,000 to pay off the mortgage, the decision should be determined on which investment will provide a better return for your risk tolerance (see Should I Have a Mortgage? ). If it is in investing, you can use the money you invested to pay off the mortgage during in retirement. If it is in paying off the home, you will have saved less for retirement than you otherwise would have yet you will also need less for retirement by paying off your house early.
Vacations & Hobbies – If you plan on using your extra time in retirement to take longer and more frequent vacations and to play more golf (or other hobbies), you may need more money for this. These expenses will curtail as you get older, so some people would not think this is a big deal to reflect in your planning (reason to use a lower target replacement ratio). Yet you never know how long you will remain healthy and active. I have a grandmother who kept on traveling into her 80s. Also, you may find yourself traveling less as you get older in retirement, yet the types of trips may be more expensive as you choose tours that are more inclusive than going it on your own. In addition, as your vacation and hobby expenses decrease, some other expenses (like medical and in-home nursing care) can increase. Thus, those who say your first 5 years of retirement are more expensive due to vacation plans, they can be right for those whose health quickly deteriorates without a corresponding increase in medical expenses (until later). However, if you remain healthy, you could continue to keep active with you vacation and hobbies if you planned ahead and saved.
Working expenses – If you had some expenses to keep the corporate image or to compensate for long hours at work, like dry cleaning, clothing (buying suits) or eating out (due to time limitations), cutting these expenses in retirement can save you some money. However for some retirees like my parents, they actually increased their eating out costs in the years leading up to retirement and in retirement because there were no children at home to feed anymore (to expensive to take a family of 6 out to eat) and thus cooking was viewed as more of a choir that they preferred not do than a requirement. So some costs may decrease (dry cleaning and gas) while other costs may increase (eating out) depending on what you want to do.
Handyman expenses – As my parents aged, the cost of expenses of maintaining their home increased. As the home aged, it needed more upkeep (as things broke down more frequently). Some of the repairs became more difficult for my parents to do by themselves (they did not have the same energy as they use to). And, since none of us children lived near by, they had to hire more help to maintain their house for things such as mowing the yard each week and cleaning the outside windows because my dad stated to avoid tall ladders.
In the end, we tend to find a way to live on what we have whether it is a little or a lot. Just like some people can live on 50% of their income while others live on 110% of their income via borrowing, a retiree can find ways to adjust how he lives on what he can afford. However, to live the life you want and to make retirement easier, you should map out some of the big expenses that you are planning on (like money needed for the mortgage and vacations) and see what you need to put away now to have the retirement you want. In retirement, you can make adjustments depending on how much you saved (e.g., adjust the number of vacations you take or the number of times you go out to eat). Yet, have a target in mind, so that these adjustments are more minor in nature than a major change because your actual savings was too far off from what should have been targeted.